If you were to look at the FY trading update from international recruitment firm Michael Page in isolation, you’d probably applaud the 23% uplift in net fee income (gross profit) and the 18% increase in pre-tax profit as a heck of a result. Unfortunately, the market had previously been expecting £86.5-114.2m in PBT (with that spread you have to wonder whether the herd were all looking at the same company!) and hence the profit warning last month (see Michael Page warns on weakening economic outlook).
In fact, over the year (to 31st Dec.) every region and discipline reported growth in NFI, including the UK (+4%). As usual, emerging markets stole the show, with A/P NFI up 37% and Americas up 44% (though Brazil slowed in Q4); even EMEA NFI rose by 24% (all at constant exchange rates). But like peers Robert Walters and Hays, Michael Page CEO, Steve Bingham called out UK financial services and public sector as particularly challenging.
Across the board, Michael Page’s fastest growing disciplines were in Engineering, Property & Construction, Procurement & Supply Chain (+35%), which I would imagine more reflects the pace of infrastructure build in emerging markets. But even Legal, Technology, HR, Secretarial, Healthcare grew by 17%, though Michael Page is a very small player in IT recruitment.
So, no surprises on the market trends, but perhaps an object lesson in managing ‘consensus’ expectations!