25 years ago my garden was hit by The Great Storm. Of course, it didn’t just single out my garden but hit much of Southern England with a hurricane of the likes we had never seen before and, gratefully, since.
The very first TechMarketView report – MarketViews 2009 – used The Great Storm as an analogy of what was happening to the ICT sector. Indeed, I strongly recommend subscribers to read it again as the views expressed are as valid now as then.
The main thesis was that a Great Storm had hit the ICT sector. 
The old established structures had been either blown away or structurally weakened. But the longer term effects were thoroughly good allowing light for new saplings to grow and prosper. We pretty accurately forecast what those ‘new saplings’ would do – Cloud and all the infrastructure required to support it, social, MIDs, smartphones, on demand entertainment etc.
We also made a jibe at Michael Fish’s expense by suggesting that our ICT industry needed better weather forecasts too. Last week we went to see the person in charge of the largest supplier of IT services to the UK market. He said TMV was the one organisation that had got it consistently right – even though we might be criticised for being ‘too pessimistic’ at the time - and joked whether he might be successful in suing one of our competitors who had got it consistently wrong.
On 16th Oct 1987 my beloved garden was a right mess. But you should see it now! We took the opportunity to make some massive changes which have greatly enhanced the garden. We left many of the trees in our woodland where they had fallen. Some resprouted and were literally ‘reborn’. Some decayed and became home for all kinds of wildlife. We planted many new saplings; many of which are now mature.
On the Bottom Line on Radio 4 on Saturday – Listen again here – Jon Moulton/Better Capital made the point that company failures were vital for growth. He pointed out that in the 1990s the UK had growth of c3.0% pa and company failure rates of 1.6% pa. Now we have no growth but a company failure rate of just 0.4%. He pointed out that in Europe the countries with the greatest fiscal problems – Greece, Portugal, Italy, Spain etc - also had the lowest company failure rates. Whereas Norway and Germany had the strongest economies and highest level of company failures.
In Marketviews 2009, we offered advice on ‘Bending with the wind’. One of these was ‘no sacred cows and a non-sentimental attitude towards dumping baggage before it drags you down”. This developed over the years into ‘To be reborn, first you have to die”. Of all the lessons, this is the one companies found the most difficult.
TechMarketView itself was born at the start of the worst recession I have known in my working life. It had no baggage. Just like my garden after the Great Storm, it has blossomed and flourished since.