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Recoveries

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It is inAppleteresting that the same edition of the FT today carried an article New Facebooksoftware blocks all ads on mobiles alongside reports of a pretty massive surge in Facebook’s share price as Investors smile on Facebook’s prospects of mobile income’.

This was all aboutAdBlock Plus(which) will block adverts both on the mobile’s browser and in other apps, whether Facebook or Angry Birds. Its launch will heap further pressure on social networking sites, such as Facebook and Twitter, who have struggled to gain revenues  as their users shift to mobile”. With 50m users it is currently being downloaded 100,000 times a day.

Despite this Facebook has surged by 50% from its Sept low of $17.73 to close last night on $25.94. Of course, that is still 32% off its May 12 IPO price. It was all down, apparently, to us analysts under estimating the potential for revenue growth from mobile over the next two years. In my much quoted Feb 12 post The $100b Facebook question I suggested that Facebook might be ‘worth’ half its suggested IPO valuation. Investors who did buy in at $19 (ie half the $38 IPO price) must be very pleased! BTW – I didn’t!

The other mega company on the recovery path is Apple. Having hit an all-time high of $705 in Sept, Apple had slumped by 25% by 16th Nov; earning it a ‘bear stock’ tagline. Since then Apple shares have rebounded by 12% to close last night on $589. That’s a 46% rise YTD. I’ve been an Apple shareholder since 2004. I haven’t ever sold – indeed, I rarely trade any of my stocks. If I ‘like’ a company I tend to buy and keep long term. I have many debates about ‘churning’ – but I’m just not clever enough to get the timing right.

Given the number of Apple products (mainly iPad minis)  I have bought for Christmas, I'm going to need a rising Apple share price to pay for them!


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