So, the Dow has ended tonight at an all-time high. NASDAQ closed at a level not seen since June 2000 – soon after the dot.com bubble burst, I thought (See Holway Share Portfolio – 2012 Annual Update) that the 35% gain in my personal share portfolio in 2012 was ‘pretty good’. But I seem to have put on another 15% in just the first two months of 2013. And this is after taking account that I am still an Apple shareholder. Apple is my only major loss in 2013 to date – down 19% YTD.
My support of Apple is well documented. Up until they hit that high of $705 in Sept 12 it was as if Apple could do no wrong. From that point on, Apple could do no right!
I’ve had many discussions on Apple since. The ‘negatives’ I have heard are:
- The Apple iPhone used to be ‘cool’. Now the ‘cool’ smartphone is the Samsung Galaxy. Indeed there is more anticipation about the imminent release of the S4 than about any new Apple product. Today I heard the iPhone described as ‘Grandad;s phone’. Insults don’t come more hurtful than that!
- The iPhone made huge profits for Apple on the back of ‘reluctant’ carrier subsidies. Why did users constantly upgrade? Because it cost them very little to do so. The carriers are all really pleased that the pressure is now off.
- Although many believe that Apple will have new hits with an iWatch or an iTV, none of these carry the profit – or carrier subsidies – that came with the iPhone.
- Many now talk of the Apple ‘arrogance’ over everything from royalties on iTunes, books and newspapers, apps etc in the same really ‘hateful’ way that people talked of Microsoft some years back. There is a feeling that Apple is getting some of its own medicine now.
All these points are valid. I doubt, however, that they can completely justify the massive loss of value that Apple has suffered of late.
Back in December when we launched out ‘Make or Break’ theme for 2013, I said that this applies very much to Apple too. The jury is still out. The evidence is so closely balanced that I am still unsure what the verdict will be.