A year back we presented our forecasts on the Mobile Internet Device (MIDs) market. We showed that of the 2b devices connected to the internet in 2010, some 40% were Mobile (MIDs). But by 2020 some 11b devices would be connected to the internet of which over 10b would be MIDs. I produced that forecast by putting together a whole range of other stats on PCs, laptops, smartphones, internet connections, in-car internet, tablet sales etc. I then asked John Caterer at Qualcomm for his ‘sanity check’ as the projections looked a bit high. Last week I had a chat with John again and we both agreed that, if anything, the forecasts now looked a bit low!
Back in 2008, around 95% of all MIDs ran under Microsoft’s operating systems - mainly because it was a laptop/netbook 'thing'. Today it is less than 50% as Apple, Google/Android and smartphones/tablets in general take over.
That’s why the announcement last night at Microsoft’s Developers Conference of what is essentially Windows 8, is of such importance – not least to the longer term survival of Microsoft. At the centre of the announcement is a new touchscreen interface for Windows (see FT – Microsoft opens Windows to touchscreen). This will augment – not replace – the current keyboard/mouse interface. Clearly this announcement is pretty vital for Nokia too who have thrown their hat in with Microsoft for future smartphones.
The ‘problem’ is that Windows 8 will not be on your screen for at least another year. Another year for Apple and Android to build their already impressive market share. Indeed, Intel’s announcement last night of an alliance with Google to optimise their chips for Android, (see – FT Intel and Google form chip alliance) is unprecedented. Afterall the very term ‘Wintel’ has been the norm for 30+ years! Conversely, Microsoft has also said that they will work with ARM (whose chips power Apple products and just about every smartphone).
Personally I think that Microsoft is in for a long and hard struggle with Windows 8. I think so many previous Windows users have “climbed the mountain, seen the other side” and won’t be in any mind to go back down again.